On December 6, local time, the market value of the Indian stock market exceeded $ 4 trillion for the first time, second only to the United States, India and Japan.The NSE NIFTY 50 Index 50 Index 50 Index 50 Index 50 has increased by more than 13%this year, and it is expected that it is the first time in history to rise for the first time.In less than three years, the market value of listed companies on the Indian Exchange increased by $ 1 trillion.Another major benchmark stock index -the Indian Standard S & P BSE Sensex Index also reached a record high.Surat Wealth Management

Why does the Indian stock market rise continuously?What will happen to the market market?

Morgan Chase strategist Rajiv Batra analyzed in the research report: "We believe that the recent factors that promote the rise in the Indian stock market include strong economic data, corporate profit data, oil prices, and strong domestic capital flows."

These factors boostJaipur Stock

India's recently announced GDP (GDP) increased by 7.6%year -on -year, ranking first among the top ten economies in the world. The growth rates in the first three quarters were 6.1%, 7.8%, and 7.6%, respectively.A Zhongwalina Investment Bank has raised the forecast of economic growth in India.Barclays and Citi predict that in the fiscal year of 2023 to 2024 next March next next, the Indian economy will increase by 6.7%, higher than the 6.3%and 6.2%of the previous two predicted 6.3%and 6.2%.Morgan Stanley also raised the GDP growth forecast of India 2024 from 6.4%to 6.9%.JP Morgan Stanley is also based on this prediction that the Indian stock market is expected to maintain 10%of the standard level of global emerging markets for three consecutive years.

Goldman Sachs also raised the Indian stock market rating to increase its holdings last month, saying that it has "the best structural growth prospects in the region".Nomura Holdings has maintained suggestions for increasing holdings of the Indian stock market in the latest Asian-Japan strategic report.Guoabong Stock

According to media data, overseas investors buy more than $ 15 billion in Indian stocks this year, and Indian domestic funds have also invested more than $ 20 billion in the Indian stock market.In 2022, the net purchase amount of overseas investors reached a record $ 17 billion.

In addition to the fundamentals, at the level of news, the results of the election last weekend showed that the three states of the Indian ruling party of the Indian People's Party (BJP) in the four State Council elections have achieved a key victory, which is conducive to Indian Prime Minister Modi in May next year.Election is re -elected.

According to the analysis, for investors, the victory of BJP has eliminated potential political risk factors to a certain extent. It consolidates Modi's status before the Indian election next year, which will keep more people betting on Indian government policy.Essence

Matthew Haupt, the investment portist manager of Wilson Asset Management, said: "BJP victory in local elections can enhance investor confidence. We may see that capital continues to flow into India and extend the time of the Indian stock market."

However, the fiery market also caused some analysts to warn the risk of the market's valuation and crowded transactions.The current long -term income of the S & P BSE Sensex is expected to be 20 times, slightly higher than the average level of five years, and it is 16 times higher than the global stock market.The stock market volatility has recently climbed synchronously with the stock index.

At the same time, data statistics show that the number of Indian investor accounts has increased from 3.93 million in December 2019 to 13.23 million at the end of October 2023.A large influx of retail investors may also challenge market supervision.Ajay Tyagi, former chairman of the Indian Securities and Exchange Commission, said: "Fundamental retail investors with limited financial knowledge hope to make money easily, but there is a bubble in the market."

In addition, the risks from the general election have not been completely eliminated.Chris Wood, the global stock strategy director of the investment bank Jefferies LLC, said that the Indian 2024 election is still a major risk. If the ruling BJP encounters such an accident in 2004, it is expected that the Indian stock market will have 25%or even even more.Large -scale callback.He added that if the BJP election is lost, although a series of radical reform projects of the current government will not be canceled, "there will be great adjustments."In May 2004, the National Democratic Alliance, which was governed at the time, failed in the election. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the founder of the Indian People's Party, who served as the Prime Minister for three times, submitted his resignation, and the Indian stock market plunged about 20%within two days.